Do football brand values equate to betting odds superiority?

Professional football has been around since the late 19th century, and yet, it’s only in the last couple of decades that we’ve been able to have a truly close look at the sport. From advanced statistics and the use of artificial intelligence, the game is advancing rapidly. Perhaps one of the more unique looks at world football, though, comes from its business side.

Clubs aren’t just local teams anymore: many have ascended to boast a global fan base. Now, these teams can both compete on the pitch and in the rankings for the most valuable club brands. Given that the brands revolve around sporting institutions, one would assume that brand value runs in line with on-pitch success. Yet, while this may have been true initially, that perhaps isn’t the case anymore.

Most valuable football club brands in the world

Unsurprisingly, all ten of the most valuable football brands hail from top-flight leagues in Europe. As shown in the most recent rankings, published in May 2021, six of the top ten are from Great Britain’s Premier League, two hail from Spain’s La Liga, one’s from Ligue 1 in France, and the other plays in Germany’s Bundesliga. Holding the crown by a fine margin is Real Madrid, valued at €1.27 billion.

This puts Los Blancos a point above the €1.26 billion-valued Barcelona and well ahead of the third-placed Manchester United at €1.13 billion. Next up was United’s cross-city rivals, Manchester City, who clocked in with €1.12 billion. Bayern Munich rounded out the ‘Billion Club’ with a €1.07 billion valuation. Perhaps most startling is the absence of the big-money Paris Saint-Germain, but that may change in the 2022 rankings.

Siphoning value for a brand and Champions League competitor

The next rankings could well see a big swing from Spanish dominance to a French surge. Standing seventh at last count with a valuation of €887 million, Paris Saint-Germain pulled off a tremendous coup to land one of the main drivers of Barcelona’s brand identity, commercial success, and football dynasty: Lionel Messi. His value to a club is near-unrivalled, with only Cristiano Ronaldo having as much pull as the Argentine.

However, somewhat uniquely given other teams’ recent performances compared to their valuations, Paris Saint-Germain will need to win the Champions League to capitalise on signing Messi. In the online betting markets, the French side are now the favourites to land Europe’s ultimate prize at 11/4. Next in line are two ‘Billion Club’ members, Manchester City and Bayern Munich, with the most valuable club out in ninth.

Not only will losing Messi hurt the value of Barcelona, potentially dropping them down the brand rankings, but he’ll help PSG both on and off of the pitch. This is why the club was so willing to pay him a cool €1.17 million per week. The Ligue 1 runners-up and one-time Champions League runners-up are backed by Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund, but given the proven money-making power of Messi, any team that could afford his wages and signing on fees (€25 million) would see profits and a brand value increase on the other side.

So, the betting odds for Europe’s most prestigious crown certainly don’t follow club brand values, and yet winning the Champions League with Messi in their side will almost certainly see PSG climb the rankings.

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