Study predicts Italy Covid-19 infections down to zero by 7 May

Single forecasting models on citizens’ behaviour were created for China and for the eight countries where the Stanleybet Group is present, including Malta


A study commissioned by the Department of Robbotics at Magellan Robotech, a subsuduary of Stanleybet Group, has concluded that coronavirus infections in Italy have already reached a peak and should be down to zero around 7 May.

Italy has registered the highest number of Covid-19 deaths globally, at 12,428, with over 105,000 having been diagnosed positive.

Stanleybet Group commissioned the report to the Department of Robotics of its Liverpool subsidiary company, the same department that is creating the Alicia humanoid robot and that uses cutting-edge techniques for the animation of virtual products.

A mathematical model interpreted the pandemic as if it were carried by a swarm of hostile robots. Every single virus was considered as if it were a small robot (‘nano robot’) and its effects were analysed, in relation to its movements, with the same logistical forecasting techniques connected to the simultaneous movement of millions of software drones with a very low level of cooperation (swarms).

This is a technique developed for the first time in the world at Magellan Robotech for specialised software capable of simulating movements of virtual entities, but with a high level of cooperation. A specific mathematical model made it possible to overcome the difficulty in identifying the correct level of swarm cooperation in the case of application to the pandemic.

Data from the Italian Civil Protection and Health Authorities of the various countries, as well as data from the World Health Organisation, have been included in the model, seasonally adjusted with econometric techniques similar to those used to stabilise the data used in the forecast models of the economic research institutes.

Moreover, forecasts about the various countries’ citizens behaviours have been added on, in relation to their level of obedience to the prescriptions of the authority. Single forecasting models were created for China and for the eight countries where the Stanleybet Group is present with its activities: England, Denmark, Belgium, Italy, Romania, Croatia, Malta, Cyprus. China, having now very stabilised data, has been used as a ‘patient’ of control and a point of reference, to assign different ‘levels of obedience’ to other authorities that are numerically calibrated on the Chinese maximum.

Therefore, China has been assigned the ‘100’ level of obedience and, gradually, lower levels to the other countries, according to a ranking that will not be made public. However, Italy has been ranked third with a ‘high’ level of obedience: despite the tragedy, it is an absolute example of abnegation from public and private medical personnel, as well as of exemplary behaviour from the citizens, now cited all over the world.

In order to assess the loss from the forced closure of all its points in the eight countries in which the Stanleybet Group operates, the board members asked to estimate two fundamental parameters for each of these countries: 1) the peak of the pandemic and 2) the moment in which the number of daily infections would decrease to 0 (zero) units. Given that peak means the moment when the infection curve changes from an exponential increase (concavity pointing upwards) to a logarithmic increase (concavity pointing downwards), and that the number of infections at zero is the moment in which the curve reaches its maximum in terms of infected subjects, the model has provided the abovementioned two parameters for each country, with predictable different outcomes from one country to another.

According to the Magellan’s model, Italy already reached its peak 4 days ago, on March 27th; after that date, the number of new infected has started to decrease and it will continue its reduction with an increasing logarithmic trend, reaching its minimum (zero infections) on 7 May 2020.

The margin of error is 4 days. The success percentage for the model is 88%.

According to Magellan Robotech, therefore, the number of new infections in Italy could be zero at any time between 3 and 11 May, but the most likely date, highly dependent on the assumptions underlying the model, is the date of 7 May.

Starting from that date on, it will be necessary that everyone keep the utmost prudence in their behaviours for at least another 14 days.

The green light from the Italian government to a resumption for all the activities across Italy can, therefore, be estimated for the last week of May.

No Malta data forthcoming

Stanleybet Group has thus far only publicised the report data concerning Italy; no information on Malta is available, although it was included in the model, as one of the eight European countries where the company operates.

Attempts to contact Stanleybet Group proved futile by the time we went to print.

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