Covid-19 Part II

By Kevin-James Fenech

Kevin is the founder and owner of JOB Search - jobsearch.mt and FENCI Consulting fenci.eu.

The Government’s short-term immediate response to the Coronavirus pandemic has been excellent. I think it is fair to say that there is overwhelming agreement on this point. This notwithstanding, I don’t get the impression that much strategic thought has been given to Malta’s response come the next influenza season.

What does Malta do when the economy is ‘switched back on’ and on the road to recovery? Since the virus will reappear especially in November/December when the influenza season kicks-off.

My concern is that the draconian measure of locking down (nearly) everything in the name of public health and switching off 90% of the economy, is a feat you can not repeat again (ever). I mean come next November/December the government can not and should not employ the same tactics otherwise we risk complete financial ruin and an economic meltdown never seen before.

To my mind, and in preparation, we should start discussing the following:

1. Test the population by means of a serological survey; we need to find out how many people really were infected this winter and (presumably) developed a natural immunity to the coronavirus; I am sure the virus entered Malta in early January and many people experienced mild or severe symptoms which are almost identical to COVID19 virus;
2. Test the population by means of an ‘antibody test’ which effectively assesses whether someone’s immune system is equipped to fight in this case the Coronavirus; Germany is leading the way here with the intention to issue ‘Immunity Certificates’ to German workers thereby allowing them to continue working even in case of a partial or full lockdown;
3. Plan to isolate our over 65 years olds and those with an underlying medical conditions, during the next influenza season; my idea is that the working population in its majority should be allowed to continue working;   

Failure to do this, we are risking a catastrophic collapse of the economy. In which case, and in the words of President Donald Trump, ‘The cure [ends up being] worse than the problem’, and this we must avoid at all costs.

So let’s start planning, now, when we have sufficient time, how are we as a country to respond the CVOID19 Part II at the end of this year. Since the current draconian lockdown comes at a huge financial cost and loss of freedoms which quite frankly, whilst necessary in March/April 2020, should not be repeated any time soon in the future.

Let me speak very frankly, if we think the virus will disappear or will not reappear think again; COVID19 is going to be a part of our everyday life just like influenza or measles for example. The ‘new normal’ will now include COVID19, so it is very important that we are ready for the second outbreak whenever that will be and that the economy can function without any more shocks or lockdowns since otherwise most businesses will no longer be able to be treated on a ‘going concern’ basis.

For the record, I am not suggesting that the economy is more important than public health since it clearly isn’t but the economy is as important as public health since without a functioning economy we can’t sustain ourselves and the more economic pain we subject ourselves to, the more likely there is for law & order to break down and/or for belligerent countries to contemplate war. All countries, not just Malta, must think beyond the current COVID19 crisis and plan for trade, business and economic activity to function no matter what comes next November/December.

We have sufficient time to plan and strategize but we must start now since this also involve intra-EU discussion and planning. Moreover, the government needs to consult and work with the business community to make it work and all this will take time.

To summarise: I believe the government must understand that the current extreme and draconian measures (which have served us very well to flatten curve in the short-term) can not and should not be considered again come COVI19 Part II. Therefore, the government must devise a Plan of Action which will allow our economy to function no matter what, next time round.

I think the solution lies in testing; we must invest in testing the entire Maltese population so as to know how many infections there really were this winter and to ascertain whether such people are now immune to COVID19. Also, we need to conduct antibody tests so as to establish how many of our working population have an immune system which won’t be troubled by COVID19. On the back of this consider the German approach of issuing Immunity Certificates or something similar.

Finally, such plan must invert the ‘self-isolation’ approach. By this I mean, the 80% that only suffer mild symptoms or will be immune should continue to work whereas the 20% (arguably 5%) who get a more severe dose of the virus isolate themselves.

In doing so, our economy can continue to function and bills or debts can be paid. To consider locking down again, is financial and economic suicide.